Alright, so the Lakers and Nuggets are playing again soon, and like usual, I got thinking about the player props. It’s become a bit of a routine for me before these big games, just digging into the numbers and seeing what jumps out.
First thing I did today was just pull up the box scores from their last few matchups. Didn’t go super deep, just wanted a refresher on who did what. You know, see how guys like LeBron James and Anthony Davis performed against Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.
My Process Kinda Goes Like This:
I usually start broad. Look at the main guys:
- LeBron James: Points, assists, rebounds. Always gotta check his lines. Sometimes they feel a bit juiced ’cause he’s LeBron, but you never know.
- Anthony Davis: Points, rebounds, blocks. His matchup with Jokic is key, so I try to see how he’s done historically points-wise and on the boards against him.
- Nikola Jokic: Points, rebounds, assists. The triple-double machine. His assist line is always interesting. Depends so much on how the Lakers try to guard him.
- Jamal Murray: Points, assists. Especially interested in his scoring. He can get hot, especially against LA it seems sometimes.
After checking the stars, I look at the supporting cast. Guys like Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon. Sometimes there’s better value there, you know? Their lines aren’t scrutinized as much maybe.
So, I spent some time this morning just clicking around different sports stat pages. Not one specific place, just gathering info. I look at:
- Recent game logs (last 5-10 games).
- Averages for the season.
- Stats specifically from Lakers vs. Nuggets games this season or last.
- Sometimes I check defensive ratings, like how well the Lakers defend guards or how the Nuggets handle forwards.
Digging a Bit Deeper
Today, I focused a bit on Jokic’s rebounds. AD is a tough cover, but Jokic still seems to find ways to get boards. I looked at his numbers in the last few games against them, trying to see if there was a pattern. It’s tricky, depends on game flow too.
Then I looked at LeBron’s assists. With the way Denver plays defense, sometimes forcing the ball out of his hands, I wondered if his assist numbers might be a decent look. But then again, he can rack ’em up quick if the shooters are hitting.
I also checked out Michael Porter Jr.’s points line. He’s kinda streaky, but if he gets open looks, he can knock ’em down. Felt like his line might be worth considering, depending on the number they set.
Making Sense of It All
Honestly, a lot of it is just looking at the numbers and getting a gut feeling. You see the stats, you think about the matchups, you consider how the game might play out. Is it gonna be high-scoring? A defensive grind? That changes things for props.
I don’t use any fancy models or anything. It’s just me, looking at readily available stats and thinking it through. I compared the lines I was seeing across a couple of the main betting sites I peek at, just to see if anything stood out as way different.
So yeah, that was my morning. Spent a good hour or so just going through stats for the Lakers-Nuggets player props. Didn’t necessarily place any bets yet, just did the homework. Sometimes I write down the props I like, sometimes I just keep it mental. It’s just part of the fun before the game for me.
