Okay, so I decided to dive into figuring out some projections for Christian Watson the other day. It wasn’t for anything super serious, mostly just my own curiosity and maybe a little bit for my fantasy league chat.
Getting Started
First thing I did was just pull up his basic stats from last season. You know, the usual stuff – games played, catches, yards, touchdowns. I wanted to get a feel for what he actually did on the field when he was out there. Remembering those big splash plays he had was one thing, but seeing the week-to-week numbers laid out is always different.
Then I started digging a bit deeper. How many times was he actually targeted? What was his catch percentage like? Stuff like that. Because just looking at touchdowns can be misleading, right? Some guys get lucky in the red zone.
Gathering the Info
I spent some time just reading stuff online too. Not just stats sites, but reading what different analysts were saying. It’s kinda wild how opinions can vary so much. Some people were super high on him, pointing to his crazy athleticism and big-play ability. Others were way more cautious, bringing up the injuries and the fact that Jordan Love is still pretty new as a starter.
- Looked at his game logs from last year.
- Checked out target share when healthy.
- Read a bunch of different fantasy football articles.
- Tried to find info on the Packers’ offensive plans, though that’s always guesswork.
Making Sense of It All
This is where it got a bit messy. You’ve got this super talented guy, clearly capable of house calls anytime he touches the ball. But then you look at the games missed due to those hamstring issues. That’s a big red flag you can’t ignore. How do you project for a guy if you’re not sure he’ll be on the field?
Consistency was another thing. He had those monster games, but also some real quiet ones. Trying to figure out if that smooths out with more experience, or if that’s just who he is as a player, is tough.
And then there’s the whole Jordan Love factor. Does Love lock onto him? Does he spread the ball around more? Does the offense lean more run-heavy? All these questions started swirling around in my head.
Putting Numbers Down
So, after looking at all that, I had to actually try and put some numbers down. I didn’t use some complex spreadsheet or anything. It was more like looking at his per-game averages when he was healthy, considering the potential target competition (like Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, the new rookie receivers, the tight ends), and then trying to make an educated guess on games played. This was the hardest part.
I basically took his healthy pace from last year, shaved off a bit because of the injury risk and maybe more target competition, and then multiplied it by a number of games I felt was realistic. Maybe around 14 or 15 games? It felt like a reasonable middle ground between hoping for a full season and fearing the worst.
My final numbers weren’t anything earth-shattering. They landed somewhere in the range most folks were predicting, maybe a little conservative on the receptions but hopeful for those big plays and touchdowns because that seems to be his game.
Final Thoughts
Doing this whole exercise really reminded me how much guesswork goes into these projections. You can look at all the data you want, but injuries, QB play, game script – so much is unpredictable. Watson’s a prime example. Huge ceiling, but a floor that’s kinda scary because of the health stuff. It was a good way to spend an afternoon, though, just sorting through the possibilities.
